Where does construction stand at the end of 2026?
The latest federal data show a market that is flat to slightly down overall. Total U.S. construction spending was $1,649.6 billion from January to September 2026, 2.9% less than in the same months of 2025, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Private nonresidential spending was 2.3% higher in September 2026 than a year earlier. Take data centers out and it was about 4% lower. Public construction held steady, up 1.0% year over year.
| Indicator | Latest reading | Period | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total construction spending (Census) | $2,186.1B annual rate, down 2.7% from a year earlier | September 2026 | Flat to down |
| Private nonresidential spending (Census) | $790.6B annual rate, up 2.3% from a year earlier | September 2026 | Up, on data centers |
| Public construction spending (Census) | $546.8B annual rate, up 1.0% from a year earlier | September 2026 | Steady |
| Construction Backlog Indicator (ABC) | 8.1 months, down 0.6 months from September | October 2026 | Softening |
| Dodge Momentum Index (planning) | 260.4, down 9.0% for the month and 2.4% from a year earlier | October 2026 | Volatile |
The forward-looking gauges tell the same story. Contractors with data center work reported 11.5 months of backlog in October 2026, compared with 7.6 months for everyone else (ABC). Institutional planning was 33.4% above a year earlier, while commercial planning was 17.6% lower (Dodge).
Which construction sectors are growing?
This table compares spending today with where the American Institute of Architects (AIA) consensus panel expects it to go. Census figures compare September 2026 with September 2025. AIA figures are full-year forecasts published in July 2026.
| Sector | Spending vs. a year earlier (Sep 2026) | AIA forecast, 2026 | AIA forecast, 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data centers | Up 90% (private) | +33% | +25% |
| Healthcare | Down 1.7% (private); hospitals up 3.6% | +2.6% | +4.4% |
| Hotels | Down 4.2% (lodging) | +4.6% | +5.2% |
| Education | Down 2.6% | +1.2% | +0.9% |
| Warehouses | Down 8.0% (private) | -1.7% | +1.4% |
| Manufacturing | Down 17.9% (private) | -11.6% | -0.6% |
| Multifamily | Down 0.2% (new multifamily) | Not forecast | Not forecast |
| Power and highways | Power up 11.1%; highway and street up 3.9% | Not forecast | Not forecast |
What do the trends mean for each sector?
Data centers: still the growth engine
Private data center construction ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $96.5 billion in September 2026, up from $50.7 billion a year earlier. The AIA panel expects data center spending to rise 33% in 2026 and 25% in 2027, when it will be roughly 8% of all nonresidential building spending.
What it means: Electrical, mechanical, concrete, and site contractors have the clearest opening, along with the suppliers that serve them. Campuses are often built in phases, so tracking the first phase can lead you to the next one.
Manufacturing: past its peak
Private manufacturing construction was 17.9% lower in September 2026 than a year earlier, and spending on computer, electronic, and electrical plants fell 41.7%. AIA expects manufacturing spending to drop 11.6% in 2026 and another 0.6% in 2027.
What it means: Fewer new factories are starting, but the megaprojects already announced still need trades and materials. Our list of the largest construction projects in the U.S. shows which ones are moving.
Healthcare: steady, with hospitals leading
Private healthcare spending was 1.7% lower in September 2026 than a year earlier, but private hospital construction rose 3.6% and public healthcare spending rose 7.5%. AIA expects healthcare spending to grow 2.6% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027, driven by an aging population.
What it means: Hospital expansions have long design phases and many decision-makers. Our guide to hospital construction projects covers who to contact and when.
Education: stable, slow growth
Educational construction ran at $137.6 billion a year in September 2026, 2.6% below a year earlier, and public schools and colleges account for most of it ($113.1 billion). AIA forecasts growth of 1.2% in 2026 and 0.9% in 2027.
What it means: School work follows bond votes and board approvals, which are public and dated. Our guide to school construction projects explains how to track them.
Multifamily: flat spending, more permits
New multifamily spending was essentially flat in September 2026, down 0.2% from a year earlier. Permits for units in buildings with five or more units rose 5.4% from January to September 2026 compared with the same months of 2025, so more apartment projects are in the pipeline.
What it means: The growth has moved. These permits fell in Texas and Florida but rose sharply in New York, North Carolina, and California. See multifamily construction leads for how to reach developers early.
Warehouses: one more soft year
Private warehouse construction was 8.0% lower in September 2026 than a year earlier. AIA notes that warehouse spending peaked at $80 billion in 2023 and fell to $55 billion in 2025. It expects a 1.7% decline in 2026 and a 1.4% gain in 2027.
What it means: Dodge named weaker warehouse planning as one reason commercial planning fell in October 2026, so expect new warehouse starts to stay selective.
Hotels: forecasters see a turn
Lodging construction was 4.2% lower in September 2026 than a year earlier. Even so, the AIA panel calls hotels the most positive of the traditional commercial sectors, forecasting gains of 4.6% in 2026 and 5.2% in 2027.
What it means: If the forecast holds, the hotels that start in 2027 are being planned and designed now, which is the time to get in front of owners and brands. Our guide to hotel construction leads shows how.
Power and infrastructure: building for data centers
Power construction was 11.1% higher in September 2026 than a year earlier, and highway and street spending rose 3.9%. Much of the new power work serves data centers. In Ohio, the U.S. Department of Energy announced $33.3 billion in funding for 9.2 GW of natural gas generation to supply a new data center campus (March 2026).
What it means: Heavy civil and electrical work is following the data centers, but ABC reports that infrastructure backlog fell to 8.7 months in October 2026, its lowest since May 2025. Look for the projects tied to a specific campus or utility plan.
What is happening in Canadian construction?
Canada’s building market is growing. Investment in building construction reached C$23.5 billion in August 2026, 7.9% more than a year earlier and 4.7% more after inflation, according to Statistics Canada. Non-residential investment rose 1.0% to C$7.4 billion, and schools and education buildings in the Toronto and Montréal areas led the institutional gain.
Permits point the same way. The value of building permits rose 8.8% in August 2026 to C$13.6 billion. Multi-unit residential permits climbed C$1.1 billion, led by Ontario, British Columbia, and Alberta, and Alberta also led the gain in industrial permits.
Large projects add to the pipeline: LNG Canada’s C$33 billion Phase 2 in Kitimat, B.C., reached a final investment decision in September 2026.
What is the construction outlook for 2027?
The AIA’s July 2026 consensus forecast expects nonresidential building spending to fall 0.3% in 2026 and grow 3.0% in 2027. The growth is narrow:
- Commercial: up 5.8% in 2027, but only about 1% without data centers.
- Institutional: up 2.7% in 2027, with healthcare (4.4%) and amusement and recreation (3.0%) the strongest categories.
- Hotels: up 5.2%, the best of the traditional commercial sectors.
- Offices and factories: traditional office down 4.5% and manufacturing down 0.6%.
Leading indicators add caution. Dodge’s planning index was 2.4% below a year earlier in October 2026, and contractors without data center work saw backlog fall to 7.6 months. Institutional planning, up 33.4% from a year earlier, is the bright spot for 2027 starts.
Where is construction booming in 2026?
By permits, the busiest states are Texas, Florida, California, North Carolina, and Georgia. Together they accounted for about 44% of the housing units authorized in the U.S. from January to September 2026. Construction employment grew fastest in Louisiana, up 13.9% from September 2025 to September 2026.
For the full ranking, with the reasons behind each state, see the states with the most construction in 2026.
How should you act on these trends?
Trends tell you where to look. Projects tell you who to call. The teams that win in a split market do three things:
- Follow the growth by sector. Put more prospecting time into data centers, power, healthcare, and hotels, and qualify manufacturing and warehouse leads more strictly.
- Get in during planning. Backlog is thinning for contractors outside data centers, so the next job has to be found earlier. Our guide on how to find commercial construction projects before they go to bid shows how.
- Work verified contacts. A named decision-maker and a phone number turn a trend into a conversation. See how to find construction leads that fit your territory.
Construct-A-Lead’s research team confirms every project by phone and publishes new and updated projects daily across the U.S. and Canada. See how we verify every project, or start your free test drive to search by sector and state: 3 days or 5 projects, no credit card required.
Annual plans start at $1,195 for a single county: compare plans and pricing.
Frequently asked questions
Where is construction booming in 2026?
Texas, Florida, California, North Carolina, and Georgia led the U.S. in housing units permitted from January to September 2026, and Louisiana added construction jobs fastest, up 13.9% in the year to September. By sector, the boom is in data centers, where private spending ran 90% above a year earlier in September 2026, and in power projects.
What is the outlook for the construction industry in 2027?
The AIA’s July 2026 consensus forecast expects nonresidential building spending to grow 3.0% in 2027 after a 0.3% dip in 2026. Data centers (up 25%), hotels (up 5.2%), and healthcare (up 4.4%) lead. Traditional offices (down 4.5%) and manufacturing (down 0.6%) lag, and commercial growth is only about 1% without data centers.
Is data center construction slowing down?
Not in spending. Private data center construction ran at a $96.5 billion annual rate in September 2026, up 90% from a year earlier, and AIA expects another 25% gain in 2027. Planning is choppier: Dodge says weaker data center planning helped pull commercial planning down 13.4% in October 2026, and that this activity swings widely from month to month.
Which commercial construction markets are growing?
In September 2026, spending was up from a year earlier on data centers (90%), power (11.1%), highways (3.9%), and private hospitals (3.6%). For 2027, AIA expects growth in data centers, hotels, healthcare, and amusement and recreation. Manufacturing (down 17.9%), warehouses (down 8.0%), and traditional offices are the weak spots.
How is Canadian construction doing in 2026?
Statistics Canada put investment in building construction at C$23.5 billion in August 2026, up 7.9% from a year earlier and 4.7% after inflation. Permit values rose 8.8% that month to C$13.6 billion, led by multi-unit housing in Ontario, British Columbia, and Alberta. Schools drove the gain in institutional investment.
Sources
- U.S. Census Bureau, Monthly Construction Spending, September 2026 (November 2, 2026)
- U.S. Census Bureau, Value of Private Construction Put in Place, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (includes data center detail) (November 2, 2026)
- American Institute of Architects, July 2026 Consensus Construction Forecast (July 20, 2026)
- Associated Builders and Contractors, ABC’s Construction Backlog Indicator Drops in October (November 10, 2026)
- Dodge Construction Network, Dodge Momentum Index Falls 9% in October (November 6, 2026)
- U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey, state year-to-date data through September 2026, compared with the same period of 2025
- Associated General Contractors of America, construction employment by state, September 2026 (October 20, 2026)
- U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Department Announces Partnership to Ensure Affordable Energy and Power America’s AI Future (March 20, 2026)
- Statistics Canada, Investment in building construction, August 2026 (October 21, 2026)
- Statistics Canada, Building permits, August 2026 (October 14, 2026)
- Prime Minister of Canada, Prime Minister Carney welcomes LNG Canada Phase 2 (September 29, 2026)
