Man construction worker wearing a mask while holding a computer.

Despite some economic headwinds, the Construct-A-Lead Research Team has detected an overall 2022 YTD increase in new construction projects under development. In nearly every category the number of new projects that have been entered into the CAL database during a timeframe that extends from 1/1/22 to 6/20/22 is greater than what was recorded for 1/1/21 to 6/20/21. This increase is likely caused by a still unfilled demand for new residential (and associated) units in states that are experiencing sharp population growth or where there are existing housing shortages.

From 1/1/22 to 6/20/22, the CAL Team uncovered and added 16,128 new projects that are in planning, as opposed to 11,850 for the same time period from last year, and also logged an increase from 2,368 to 3,706 projects that will likely come in between $25 million and $100 million. There was also a sharp rise, from 468 to 886, among detected projects that will exceed $100 million.

While every state monitored by CAL saw an overall rise in project planning, development has been particularly strong in the following ten states:
Texas graphic

#1: Texas

As expected, the Lone Star state easily leads the pack in terms of new project planning, with 4,775 new projects as of 6/20/22 (the CAL team had discovered 3,059 new projects in Texas by this date in 2021). New residential construction planning has also increased from 586 to 964 projects in comparison to this point in 2021. This disproportionate result is likely due to a number of factors, including the high number of people moving to the state from other areas of the country, the large starting population (just under 30 million), and land availability. 

As a major port and crossroads state, Texas also sees heavy warehouse development. As of 6/20/22, the number of industrial/warehouse projects has increased from 471 to 702 over this time last year.

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#2: Florida

The Sunshine State has consistently led the usual #2 state, California, throughout 2022. Boasting a population of 22 million that is rapidly growing, Florida’s expansion has manifested in the form of an increasing number of high-rise projects as available coastal land diminishes. With 1,406 new projects in the CAL database as of 6/20/22 (up from 977 by this date in 2021), Florida continues to exhibit steady growth in new project planning.

California graphic

#3: California

Although the Golden State’s population of approximately 40 million is beginning to level out due to out-of-state migration, a severe housing shortage in its major metropolitan areas continues to propel new development forward. While California has lost the #2 spot to Florida, it is still outperforming its 2021 YTD numbers in 2022, as the CAL team has uncovered 1,279 new projects in planning this year.

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#4: North Carolina

Another Southern state that has experienced a noticeable influx of new residents, the Tar Heel State has consistently held the #4 slot among the states for new project development for several years. 2022 YTD new projects in NC were at 732 as of 6/20/22, up from 538 for this time last year.

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#5: Canada

While not a US state and itself divided among several provinces and territories, the Great White North has a combined population that is similar to California’s, albeit with a higher growth rate, and can be analyzed as a ‘state’ for comparative reasons. Currently, the provinces of Ontario and British Columbia, with 390 and 211 YTD projects respectively, lead development in Canada. To date, the CAL team has entered 652 new projects in Canada for 2022, 512 of which are residential.

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#6: New York

After two years of struggling to make the Top Ten due to pandemic restrictions, project planning in New York has finally begun to recover, with 533 new projects being entered into the CAL database so far for 2022. A decline in residents over the last few years has dropped its population below that of Florida’s, however, and NY continues to battle Georgia for a spot in the middle of the Top Ten states.

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#7: Georgia

While the Peach State only has a population of about 11 million, it’s another Southern State that is seeing a rapid influx of new residents. As a crossroads state, it’s also a major center for new warehouse construction. This has translated to 522 new projects in the CAL database, including 230 residential and 72 industrial/warehouse projects, as of 6/20/22.

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#8: Ohio

Another state that serves as a transportation crossroads, Ohio is the only Midwestern state to make the Top Ten list, with 495 YTD new projects in the CAL database. The Buckeye State benefits from having several separate metropolitan areas as well as a diversified economy and a steady population of just under 12 million.

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#9: Washington

Washington state has experienced several years of strong population growth, having gained roughly one million residents between 2011 and 2021, and usually ranks in the middle of the Top Ten for new construction project planning. It is off to a slower than expected start in 2022, however with a population of just under 8 million the Evergreen State punches above its demographic weight, especially for a northern state, and has added 446 new projects to the CAL database so far this year.

Pennsylvania graphic

#10: Pennsylvania

The largest of the Mid-Atlantic states, Pennsylvania has routinely traded places with Washington and Ohio for position among the states throughout 2022.  As of 6/20/22, it was tied with Washington with 446 new projects in the CAL database for 2022.

Beyond the Top Ten states for new project development, there is a small resurgence in planning throughout the Midwest, and states like Tennessee and Arizona may break into this list by the end of the year.

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Sources: 2021 and 2022 Construct-A-Lead data

James P. Dinnerville 2x
James P. Dinnerville

Director of Research

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